![]() ![]() Consequently, defence expenditure kept dropping and Britain de facto disarmed itself. Every next year that ten-year horizon was automatically pushed back an additional year, quite regardless of what was actually going on in the world. In 1919 the United Kingdom decided that it would not have to fight a major war in the next ten years, hence a limited defence budget would suffice. That is comfortable, of course, but history should teach us that what is the most comfortable is not necessarily the most strategic.Ī most comfortable decision from the not too distant past was the Ten Year Rule. And they still believe that, eventually, everything will be alright, so no action needs to be taken. Deep down, most national leaders remain wedded to national solutions. Not because we cannot, even though the obstacles are great and numerous (from time-wasting Brexit negotiations to French and German elections that might turn awry). There is little ground to trust that Europe will resolutely and unitedly face all of the challenges around us. This is why I really worry: because of Europe itself. But it almost seems as if the policy-makers involved would prefer to do my job: they like to write about it, they like to talk about it – but they don’t do it. Yes, we have heard many grand declarations about European defence these last months, including from the key actors: France and Germany. To this day, there is no real European defence, nor a truly European strategy. But, alas, also because things simply do not advance. Not only to pad the academic CV (as professors are officially expected to be prolific, and to teach, and to be in the newspapers, and, most importantly, to sit on innumerable committees). Ever since, I have been basically writing the same article, year after year. I graduated from Ghent University in 1998 on a thesis on European defence. Perhaps it is age or, better, experience. (Which has its own hazards: I don’t remember what you were on about, but I do know you were funny, someone who had heard me – not a student – once told me). And that in spite of the humour I try to insert. In recent months I have noticed that when speaking for my students and for all kinds of civil society groups, the tone always ends up more sombre than I envisaged. For the first time in my career I find it difficult to be optimistic about world politics in the new year. Of everything that is happening around us, I find this the most worrying of all.Īnd I am worried. The elephant (the symbol of the Republican Party) is taking over the porcelain shop. On that day he will take the oath as President of the United States. This article also appeared in a Dutch version in De Morgen on 27 December 2016.Ĭome 20 January, Europe’s main ally will be Donald Trump. At the start of the new year, Sven Biscop desperately tries to remain optimistic. ![]()
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